Amateurs discuss tactics, pros discuss logistics

jasencomstock:

The election is important but stop watching individual polls. They have to be taken in context and should be viewed from 10,000 feet. Aggregators are better and more likely to be correct and they will show a trend.

Obama can win with something like 38% of white male voters- if you didn’t know, white males spew the majority of opinion about things in our society ( example: u/n JasenComstock) Obama’s margin of victory will be determined by turnout- something we can’t measure yet, and not a poll of likely or registered voters. If turnout is high enough, Obama wins every time. Democrats have majority support in all other groups.

The nation is huge and not homogenous. In 2008 Obama won 9% of the white male vote in Alabama. National polls with both candidates a few points from each other show nothing. The president is chosen by an electoral college, not a popular vote.

Our society has a vested interest in showing closely fought matches between the parties.

Elections are points between where people do work to affect change- they are not change themselves really. Legislatively, the period between the election and inauguration will have more activity than the last two years. Barring a miracle, the next two will be deadlocked years like the last two- this is the reality we need to accept and it isn’t a bad thing, especially if Romney wins.

VOTE!

Not all states have early voting, but a lot of them do. Find out where you can vote right now and go do it. Call up your friends and bring them with you.

jasencomstock