"Which is why the absolute best case is that Joe Biden did something that’s so effective that he looks really stupid. If people actually reduce social contact and cut down on air travel and stay home in response to a single cough, then it’s much likelier that swine flu will quickly die out. If it does, we’ll all feel a bit foolish over having taken those precautions and late night comics will make fun of Joe Biden and everyone will move on. If we don’t, and R jumps up, then we could be dealing with a full blown pandemic and Biden’s warning will come to be seen as, if anything, insufficiently alarmist."

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